What is this lesson about?
The lesson is a basic introduction to the concept of uncertainty and predictability unprecedented events in foresight studies. It starts with definitions of uncertainty, predictability and presentation of the correspondence between two terms. In the next part, the term of wild card and weak signal are introduced. Finally, disruptive technology is also discussed in the context of the difference between evolutionary, revolutionary and disruptive changes.

Who is it for?
This lesson is intended for anyone who has no or very little knowledge on uncertainty and predictability in futures research. If you want to learn how to better identify and understand unprecedented events, this lesson is for you.

How will you benefit from taking this lesson?
You will receive the basic knowledge to understand the importance of uncertainty, predictability unprecedented events in foresight studies. You will understand the difference between wild card and weak signal and you will be able to explain their concept. You will receive the knowledge necessary to recognize technological changes of different nature.

Competences addressed by the lesson:

  • Adaptability/Flexibility
  • Inductive reasoning