A3 Lesson Summary and References

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Summary of lesson

Futures Diamond is an approach that has evolved over time. It is an encompassing methodology to sort the many different methods and tools known to be useful for Futures research.

The process of the intuitive logic school of scenario construction requires to identify various factors and the selections of driving forces. The generated scenarios will help in decision making especially when developing a strategy in an organization or a for a project.

In Futures Studies and Foresight projects a number of workshop formats are known that have been developed to involve smaller or larger groups in both the analysis and the shaping of the future. The Future Workshop developed by R. Jungk is one of them. It enables a group of people to develop new ideas or solutions for self-organization, attainment of goals, social conflicts and other issues. This well structured participatory method fosters self‐organisation, awareness, imaginativeness and decision-making competence.

The World System Model is a working example of using collective intelligence and systems thinking to approach global challenges. The model aims to help individuals and organisations to better understand how their professional or personal activities can be influenced by global conditions and vice versa.

References and further information

Papers and Articles:

Popper, R. (2008) How are foresight methods selected? Foresight, Volume 10, issue 6.
Kosow, Hannah, and Robert Gassner (2008) Normative-Narrative Scenarios as a Tool to Support Strategic R&D Processes: Benefits and Limits.” Third International Seville Seminar On Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-Making–Seville Theme: Methods and Tools Contributing, October 16–17.

Books:

Popper, R. (2009), Mapping Foresight. Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future, EFMN publications, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2009
Popper R. (2008), Foresight Methodology, in: Georghiou L., Cassingena J., Keenan M., Miles I. and Popper R. (eds.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Fahey, R. M. Randall, Learning from the future. Competitive Foresight Scenarios, John Wiley&Sons, 1998.
Chermack (2011), Scenario Planning in organizations. How to create, use and assess scenarios, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc, San Francisco.
Lindgren, H. Bandhold, Scenario Planning. (2003). The link between future and strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, Great Britain.
Kapferer, T. Gönner, N. Schwieters, S. Otto, et al. (2016), Delphi Energy Future 2040. Study report. Publisher: German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG (PwC), http://www.delphi-energy-future.com/site/assets/files/1016/6_2016_delphi-energy-future-2040_study_en_final.pdf.

Foresight Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2020, Technology and research directions for future road vehicles , version 1.0, https://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/uploads/Research/CTM/Roadmapping/foresight_vehicle_v1.pdf
Phaal (2003), Fast-start technology roadmapping, UNIDO – Technology Foresight for Practitioners, Prague.
Tony Hodgson (2012), Ready For Anything: Designing Resilience for a Transforming World, https://www.amazon.com/Ready-For-Anything-Transforming-ebook/dp/B008X7268G/.

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