Summary of lesson
Framework foresight is a method for carrying out foresight projects developed at the University of Houston. The method is a systematic way to develop a ‘‘start-to-finish’’ future view of a domain or topic of interest and to explore its implications.
Forecasting promising technology via patent analysis is significant for establishing management strategies, since the patent literature is a unique source of technical information.
Time series forecasting methods produce forecasts based solely on historical values and they are widely used in business situations where forecasts of a year or less are required.
Text mining refers to the process of extracting interesting and non-trivial patterns or knowledge from text documents: it has a great commercial potential since 80% of a company’s information is contained in text documents.
Roadmapping is one of the popular management tools used in future studies, especially during technology planning and development.
Delphi is a method facilitating the location or construction of consensus among experts on predictions concerning a specific issue.
References and further information
Papers and Articles:
- Hines A., Bishop P. C., Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way, Futures 51 (2013) 31-49.
- Technological Forecasting: A Review – Ayse Kaya Firat, Wei Lee Woon, Stuart Madnick
- European Patent Office – IP Teaching Kit – IP Basics
- European Patent Office – IP Teaching Kit – IP Advanced I
- Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis – Tugrul U. Daim, Guillermo Rueda, Hilary Martin, Pisek Gerdsri
- A novel approach to forecast promising technology through patent analysis – Gabjo Kim, Jinwoo Bae
- WWWWWHOW (Perché, quando, chi, dove, cosa, come) Leggere un brevetto! – Gualtiero Fantoni, Domenico Golzio, Micol Manenti
- Expert forecast and realized outcomes in technology foresight – Riccardo Apreda, Andrea Bonaccorsi, Felice dell’Orletta, Gualtiero Fantoni
- Mappatura nuove chimiche per le batterie ricaricabili – Errequadro srl
- Kayser, Victoria & Shala, Erduana. (2014). Generating Futures from Text: Scenario Development using Text Mining.
- Text Mining: The state of the art and the challenges – Ah-Hwee Tan
- Kapferer, T. Gönner, N. Schwieters, S. Otto, et al., Delphi Energy Future 2040. Study report. Publisher: German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG (PwC), May 2016..
Books:
- What is Text Mining? – The Complete Beginner’s Guide – Suhaib Peerzada
- Dispense di Statistica II 2013/2014- Franco Flandoli
- A Little Book of R For Time Series – Avril Coghlan
- Fahey, R. M. Randall, Learning from the future. Competitive Foresight Scenarios, John Wiley&Sons, 1998.
- Chermack, Scenario Planning in organizations. How to create, use and assess scenarios, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc, San Francisco, 2011.
- Lindgren, H. Bandhold, Scenario Planning. The link between future and strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, Great Britain, 2003
Websites:
- https://www.epo.org/searching-for-patents/technical/espacenet.htm
- http://www.freepatentsonline.com/
- https://a-little-book-of-r-for-time-series.readthedocs.io/en/latest/src/timeseries.html
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3cjbB38Z4A
- SCI material – Filippo Chiarello on Github
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162510001393
- http://www.foresight-platform.eu/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/EFMN-Brief-No.-158_MONA.pdf
- http://www.foresight-platform.eu/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/EFMN-Brief-No.-6-Foresight-Vehicle-Technology-Roadmap-2020.pdf
- https://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/uploads/Research/CTM/Roadmapping/foresight_vehicle_v1.pdf
- https://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology/reports/reportpdf/report115.pdf
- https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0040162516301123/1-s2.0-S0040162516301123-main.pdf?_tid=c51c7e4b-57b6-4348-9713-b2afd0621343&acdnat=1552557802_e73fcc312fa51110bf9d413cb1cb51b9
- http://www.iae.or.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ene_vision_2100/main.pdf
- http://www.delphi-energy-future.com/site/assets/files/1016/6_2016_delphi-energy-future-2040_study_en_final.pdf
- http://www.delphi-energy-future.com/the-project/
- http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/13723.pdf
- http://www.delphi-energy-future.com/site/assets/files/1016/6_2016_delphi-energy-future-2040_study_en_final.pdf
- http://www.delphi-energy-future.com/the-project/
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