Topic Progress:

Summary of lesson

Framework foresight is a method for carrying out foresight projects developed at the University of Houston. The method is a systematic way to develop a ‘‘start-to-finish’’ future view of a domain or topic of interest and to explore its implications.

Forecasting promising technology via patent analysis is significant for establishing management strategies, since the patent literature is a unique source of technical information.

Time series forecasting methods produce forecasts based solely on historical values and they are widely used in business situations where forecasts of a year or less are required.

Text mining refers to the process of extracting interesting and non-trivial patterns or knowledge from text documents: it has a great  commercial potential since 80% of a company’s information is contained in text documents.

Roadmapping is one of the popular management tools used in future studies, especially during technology planning and development.

Delphi is a method facilitating the location or construction of consensus among experts on predictions concerning a specific issue.

References and further information

Papers and Articles:

  • Hines A., Bishop  P. C., Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way, Futures 51 (2013) 31-49.
  • Technological Forecasting: A Review – Ayse Kaya Firat, Wei Lee Woon, Stuart Madnick
  • European Patent Office – IP Teaching Kit – IP Basics
  • European Patent Office – IP Teaching Kit – IP Advanced I
  • Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis – Tugrul U. Daim, Guillermo Rueda, Hilary Martin, Pisek Gerdsri
  • A novel approach to forecast promising technology through patent analysis – Gabjo Kim, Jinwoo Bae
  • WWWWWHOW (Perché, quando, chi, dove, cosa, come) Leggere un brevetto! – Gualtiero Fantoni, Domenico Golzio, Micol Manenti
  • Expert forecast and realized outcomes in technology foresight – Riccardo Apreda, Andrea Bonaccorsi, Felice dell’Orletta, Gualtiero Fantoni
  • Mappatura nuove chimiche per le batterie ricaricabili – Errequadro srl
  • Kayser, Victoria & Shala, Erduana. (2014). Generating Futures from Text: Scenario Development using Text Mining.
  • Text Mining: The state of the art and the challenges – Ah-Hwee Tan
  • Kapferer, T. Gönner, N. Schwieters, S. Otto, et al., Delphi Energy Future 2040. Study report. Publisher: German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG (PwC), May 2016..



  • What is Text Mining? – The Complete Beginner’s Guide – Suhaib Peerzada
  • Dispense di Statistica II 2013/2014- Franco Flandoli
  • A Little Book of R For Time Series – Avril Coghlan
  • Fahey, R. M. Randall, Learning from the future. Competitive Foresight Scenarios, John Wiley&Sons, 1998.
  • Chermack, Scenario Planning in organizations. How to create, use and assess scenarios, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc, San Francisco, 2011.
  • Lindgren, H. Bandhold, Scenario Planning. The link between future and strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, Great Britain, 2003



  5. SCI material – Filippo Chiarello on Github