Summary of lesson
The foresight research method should be selected always after determining the aim of research, but never vice versa. In order to obtain accurate final results in foresight studies, it is advisable to use methods from different types and classes.
Framework foresight is a method for carrying out foresight projects developed at the University of Houston. The method is a systematic way to develop a ‘‘start-to-finish’’ future view of a domain or topic of interest and to explore its implications.
Foresight diamond is a well-known among foresight practitioners the R. Popper’s typological distribution of methods (relating to the their nature: quantitative, semi-quantitative and qualitative methods). It is a practical framework including group of methods commonly used in strategic foresight and decision-making. The spatial location in the Diamond is done in terms of the core type of knowledge source each method is mainly based upon and refers to such dimensions as creativity, interaction, evidence, expertise. Proper design of foresight research methodology should include the use of at least one method of each dimension of diamond.
References and further information
- Unido Technology Foresight Manual. 2005. Organizations and Methods. Unido, Vienna
- Duin, P.; Heger, T.; Schlesinger, M. D. 2014. Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks, Futures 59: 62-78
- Magruk, A. (2011). Innovative classification of technology foresight methods. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 17(4), 700-715.
- Magruk, A. (2015). The process of selection of the main research methods in foresight from different perspectives. Business, Management and Education, 13(2), 234-248
- Popper R. (2008), Foresight Methodology, in: Georghiou L., Cassingena J., Keenan M., Miles I. and Popper R. (eds.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 44-88.
- Popper, R. (2008) How are foresight methods selected? Foresight, Volume 10, issue 6, pp.62–89
- Popper, R. (2009), Mapping Foresight. Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future, EFMN publications, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2009
- https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/foresight-diamond/
- http://www.futuresdiamond.com/the-diamond
- Smart J. M. (2005), Underground Automated Highway Systems (UAHS) for High-Density Cities Post 2030.
- Hines A., Bishop P. C., Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way, Futures 51 (2013) 31-49.