Summary of lesson
Trend is a general tendency or direction evident from past events increasing or decreasing in strength of frequency of observation. It usually suggests a pattern.
Megatrends are long-term processes of transformation with a broad scope and a dramatic impact. They are considered to be powerful factors which shape future markets. Megatrends differ from other trends in three ways: time horizon, reach and intensity of impact.
Trend analysis is a forecasting method that allow to study and interpret historical data in order to predict what will happen to a certain stock in the future.
It is based on the assumption that what has happened in the past will affect the future on the base of recurring patterns.
Technology foresight is a systematic attempts to observe the long-term future of science, technology, the economy and society, with the aim to identify the emerging technologies that will probably produce the greatest economic and social benefits.
The five steps in the procedure are: definition of task, research & analysis, foresight, implications and implementation.
References and further information
- Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller (2018) Technology Foresight, EnDURE.
- Foresight Toolkit U.K. and The AC/UNU Millennium Project
- Lockwood Carlson, Using Technology Foresight To Create Business Value (Article)
- AOner, M. A., Basoglu, A. N., & Kok, M. S. (2007). Megatrends as perceived in Turkey in comparison to Austria and Germany. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(4), 538-557..
- Bubner N., Bubner N., Helbig R. & Jeske M., (2014), Logistics trend radar, Delivering insight today. Creating value tomorrow!, Pub. DHL Customer Solutions & Innovation, Troisdorf.
- Singh, S. (2012). New mega trends: Implications for our future lives. Springer.
- Graf, H.G.: Global Scenarios. Megatrends in Worldwide Dynamics, Ruegger Verlag, Zürich, 2002.
- https://a-little-book-of-r-for-time-series.readthedocs.io/en/latest/src/timeseries.html