Summary of lesson
An important feature of foresight is accepting the fact of uncertainty, trying to understand it and making it a part of thinking about the future. The uncertainty lies in the fact that the observer testing the system in a given place and time, can not define the further functioning of that system with complete certainty. Uncertainty is inherent in any decision. Predictability means the possibility of prediction and refers to the relationship between the observer and the observed object whose behavior is predicted. When looking into the future, the degree of predictability gradually goes down the further we look while uncertainty goes up.
We can anticipate the future by trying to sense low probability and high impact events. They are referred to as weak signals and wild cards. Wild card describes an event with a low probability of occurrence and a high impact of influence. Weak signals are past or current developments/issues with ambiguous interpretations of the origin meaning and implications. They are warning us about the probability of future events.
Unprecedented changes may be related to technological developments. Technological change may be one of the following nature: evolutionary, revolutionary and disruptive. Evolutionary change is typical development path of technology. Revolutionary change takes place when a given technology is replaced by a new one, superior in performance. Disruptive change, like revolutionary change causes discontinuity, but on top of that it also redefines the market.
References and further information
- Unido Technology Foresight Manual. 2005. Organizations and Methods. Unido, Vienna
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