Summary of lesson
Scenarios are primarily a description of possible actions or events in the future. There are several possible scenarios with one of several possible situations that could exist in the future. A situation can be considered as an environment snapshot.
Being able to generate future scenarios has always been a useful exercise; however its usability is often limited due to the fact that scenario building exercise does not always explore the consequences or impacts of the scenarios (positive and negative) on the organization (or a subject of foresight).
Furthermore, creating organisational future(s) with scenarios often lacks a clear link with action. A method that can be used to generate feasible strategic options is roadmapping. It provides a structured (and often graphical) means for exploring and communicating the relationships between evolving and developing markets, products and technologies over time.
References and further information
Papers and Articles:
- Hiltunen E., Foresight and Innovation. How Companies are Coping with the Future, Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.
- Vishnevskiy K., Meissner D., Egorova O., Foresight for SMEs: how to overcome the limitations in small firms?, Basic research program working papers, Series: SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2015 .
- Rohrbeck R., Battistella C., Huizingh E., Corporate foresight : An emerging field with rich tradition, “Technological Forecasting and Social Change” 2015, 101s. 1-9.
- Jissink T., Huizingh E. K., Rohrbeck R., Corporate Foresight and Performance: a chain – of- effects model, [in:] Working paper, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, 2015.
- Grimm T., Foresight Maturity Model, Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field, Journal of Futures Studies, 13, (2009), s.69-80.
- Kononiuk A., Glińska E., Foresight in a small company, Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences 213, 2015, s. 971 – 976
- Kononiuk A., Sacio – Szymańska A. (2015), Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies—a regional perspective, Eur J Futures Res 3: 23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9
- Van ’t Klooster SA, Van Asselt MBA (2006) Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38(1):15–30
- Young, L. Eur J Futures Res (2018), Using systems thinking to design actionable futures: a nuclear weapons example, 6: 10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0138-8
- Cederquist A, Goluke U (2016) Teaching with scenarios: a social innovation to foster learning and social change in times of uncertainty. European Journal of Futures Research 4(17) pp1-8
- Notten P., (2005) Writing on the wall: scenario development in times of discontinuity. Thela Thesis & Dissertation.com, Amsterdam
- Atherton A (2005) A future for small business? Prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning. Futures 37:777–794
- Fink A, Siebe A, Kuhle JP (2004) How scenarios support strategic early warning processes. Foresight 6(3):173–185
- Godet M (2000) The art of scenarios and strategic planning – tools and pitfalls. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 65(1):7–17
- Phaal R., Farrukh C.J.P., Probert D. R., Technology roadmapping—A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issues 1–2, January–February 2004, Pages 5-26 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162503000726
- Walsh, S.T., Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study – The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, „Technological Forecasting and Social Change” 71 (2004), s. 161–185
- Yasunaga, Y.; Watanabe, M.; Korenaga, M., Application of technology roadmaps to governmental innovation policy for promoting technology convergence, „Technological Forecasting and Social Change” 76 (2009), s. 61–79
Books:
- van der Heijden K (1997) Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Wiley, New York
- Sacio-Szymańska A. Ed. (2016), Corporate foresight potential in Visegrad (V4) countries, ITeE-PIB.
Websites: