Summary of lesson
Forecasting is based on trend extrapolation. It could be associated with driving from the past to the future but looking at the back mirror! In this way we follow the same path. In scenarios, we assume that there is more than one path in the future. There are four forms of scenario building: visions, stories, images, models. One of the most popular models of scenario building is an intuitive logic school.
Delphi method is a kind of expert research. It is used to predict long-term processes or phenomena of which knowledge is insufficient or uncertain. Method is multistage procedure, agreeing and summing up the opinions of competent persons. The results of the first/previous round are presented on an aggregated basis before the next step of analysis. The approach is characterized by independence of expert positions and anonymity of individual opinions.
References and further information
- Fahey, R. M. Randall, Learning from the future. Competitive Foresight Scenarios, John Wiley&Sons, 1998.
- Chermack, Scenario Planning in organizations. How to create, use and assess scenarios, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc, San Francisco, 2011.
- Lindgren, H. Bandhold, Scenario Planning. The link between future and strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, Great Britain, 2003.
- Okoli, S. D. Pawlowski, The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications, Information & Management, 2004, 42/1, 15-29.
- E. Julsrud, T. P. Uteng, Technopolis, shared resources or controlled mobility? A net-based Delphi-study to explore visions of future urban daily mobility in Norway, European Journal of Futures Research, 2015, 3-10.
- Helmer, Analysis of the Future: Delphi method, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3558.html
- Knowledge base on 4CF’s website: 4cf.pl/project/the-delphi-method/?lang=en