Lesson Summary and References

by | Dec 13, 2018 | Uncategorized

Topic Progress:

Summary of the lesson

The function of strategic foresight  is to prepare policy-makers, researchers or business actors for the decision-making in the context of the 21st century, which has two determinative characteristics: (1) increasingly uncertain, (2) highly complex.

By gathering foreknowledge; broadening strategy focus and enhancing mindsets of key actors; strategic foresight can contribute to decision-making by recommending visionary decisions, policies and strategies,  which embrace such a complex, emergent and uncertain reality.

Furthermore, strategic foresight allows decision-makers from policy, research or business environments to obtain sufficient details on the world situation sufficiently early to enable them to establish a strategy or to take actions, whether this is in terms of total prevention or mitigation of potential adverse consequences or taking advantage of opportunities.

Looking at foresight activities in different countries and organisations reveals that there is no single model of foresight that fits all purposes and backgrounds.

The ways other countries bring foresight to the attention of decision -makers and how it is then implemented differ as well, but there are successful systematic practices from which to learn.

References and further information

References Topics 2.4.1-2.4.4

  1. Cuhls K., (2015), Bringing Foresight to decision-making – lessons for policy-making from selected non-European countries., EC RTD https://ec.europa.eu/research/openvision/pdf/rise/cuhls-foresight_into_decisions.pdf
  2. Rohrbeck (2011); Corporate Foresight. Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Physica-Verlag, Springer. https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783790826258
  3. Destatte P., (2010), Foresight: A major tool in tackling sustainable development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 77, Issue 9, pp. 1575-1587. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/technological-forecasting-and-social-change/vol/77
  4. Miller R. (2016), Recent Developments in Thinking about the Future: An Overview for Policymakers pp. 187-199 in W.W. Neng, Adaptive Governance for a Changing World, Civil Service College, Singapore. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296332295_Recent_Developments_in_Thinking_about_the_Future_An_Overview_for_Policymakers
  5. Kuosa T., Practising strategic foresight in government. The cases of Finland, Singapore and the European Union, 2011. http://www.slideshare.net/WorldFuture2015/acting-on-the-future-practical-foresight-implementation-in-canada
  6. Foresight Tackling Obesities: Future Choices – Project report. Government Office for Science https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/287937/07-1184x-tackling-obesities-future-choices-report.pdf
  7. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/foresight-projects
  8. https://www.bmbf.de/en/bringing-technology-to-the-people-3115.html
  9. Glenn J., Gordon T. (2004), Future S&T management policy issues—2025
    global scenarios, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 913 – 940 http://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/15681.pdf  
  10. Millennium Project Future S&T Management Policy Issues  2025 Global Scenarios http://107.22.164.43/millennium//scenarios/st-scenarios.html
  11. Tanimoto S. L., (2007), Social Issues and the Future of Artificial Intelligence, University of Washington, https://courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/cse415/03wi/slides/Social/sld001.htm
  12. Burmeister K., Neef A. (2005), In the long run, Corporate Foresight und Langfristdenken in Unternehmen und Gesellschaft, oekom verlag, https://www.oekom.de/nc/buecher/gesamtprogramm/buch/in-the-long-run.html
  13. https://www.markkuwilenius.fi/blogit/
  14. Rosa A. B., Gudowsky N.,, Warnke P., Häuser N. (2018), Report on comparison of research topics from CIMULACT with those from expert oriented foresight studies; Fraunhofer ISI http://www.cimulact.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/D5.2_Report-on-comparison-expert-oriented-foresight-studies-compressed.pdf
  15. APF Compass  | Special Edition #2, 2016, Understanding Alvin Toffler, https://apf.org/publications/compass/

References Topics 2.4.5-2.4.6

  1. Rohrbeck R., Battistella C., Huizingh E. (2015). Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 101 (2015) 1–9
  2. https://www.shell.com/promos/forty-years-of-shell-scenarios/_jcr_content.stream/1448557479375/703c8a8b176922ae312712b355706ce087652a860980d5ffecac769817903d88/shell-scenarios-40yearsbook080213.pdf
  3. Grim, T. (2009). Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field. Journal of Future Studies, 13 (4) 2009
  4. Kononiuk, A., Glinska, E. FORESIGHT IN A SMALL FIRM. A CASE STUDY, presentation from ICE Conference 2015
  5. Rohrbeck, R. (2011). Corporate Foresight. Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Springer-Verlag: Berlin
  6. Cornelius, P. (2005). Exploring the Future in Royal Dutch/Shell: The Role of Scenarios and Possible Extensions [in:]Burmeister, K., Neef, A. (ed.), In the long run. Corporate Foresight und Langfristdenken in Unternehmen und Gesellschaft. Oekom Verlag: Munchen
  7. De Toni, A.F., Sigari, R., Battistella C. (2015). Anticipare il Futuro:Corporate Foresight, Biblioteca dell’Economia D’Azienda, Egea spa
    Motyl, P. (2014). Sztuka podejmowania decyzji. ICAN INSTITUTE: Warszawa
  8. Rohrbeck, R., Kum, M. E., Jissink, T., Gordon, A. V. (2018). Corporate Foresight Benchmarking Report 2018: How Leading Firms Build a Superior Position in Markets of the Future.  SSRN Electronic Journal. 10.2139/ssrn.3178562.
  9. Kononiuk, A., Glińska, E. Foresight in a Small Enterprise. A Case Study. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 213, 1 December 2015, Pages 971-976